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The Chicago Bulls (27-16, 1st in NBA Central), losers of six of their last eight by an average of nearly 12 points, have fallen on hard times. This is weird to consider when noticing the much-hyped Cleveland Cavaliers (22-20) trail the Bulls by 4.5 games in the division only after winning three straight, with their most recent victory an impressive 108-94 win over the Bulls in Quicken Loans Arena last night. However, despite sitting comfortably as the current fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls’ W-L record is lesser than what it probably should be, when reminded of the Bulls’ losses to: Boston, Indiana, Sacramento, Denver, Brooklyn, Utah, and Orlando. Those teams’ have combined in 2014-15 for an underwhelming record of 108-182 (.372 W-L%).
With an offense that ranks ninth in the league in both scoring (102.1 PPG) and Offensive Rating (108.4), the Bulls have managed to make up for some surprising defensive shortcomings and the usual key player felled by injury. There have been times, though, when what appears to be a potent offense stalls, and the gameplan seemingly reverts to wasted passes and forced, often contested shots with the shot clock winding down. Just passing the halfway mark, though, the Bulls don’t appear to be in murky waters, provided they remain healthy the rest of the way.
NBA.com uses SportVU software to track player and ball movement using cameras placed in different locations around each arena. This data is used to determine things such as how fast or how long a player has traveled, or how many rebounding chances a team had during the course of a game. It’s not quite akin to baseball’s advanced metrics, but it is an interesting way to “analyze” who is doing what in a manner we’ve never before been able to. I will use these findings, as well as other statistics found on the site and others, in this post and many NBA-related ones in the future as a way to better support arguments and opinions, and also give readers information that is not widely known or discussed, even by media members.
Drive, Derrick, DRIVE
Derrick Rose has slashed (PPG/RPG/APG) 18/3.1/5.1 in 32 of the Bulls’ 43 games while playing just under 30 minutes (29.6) per game. Always more of a streaky shooter, Rose is shooting 41.3% from the field and 31% from 3, not all that awful when you put those next to his career numbers (45.6 FG%, 31.2 3P%) and factor in his return from serious knee injuries that practically robbed him of the last two NBA seasons.
My initial concern once the regular season began was that Rose would not only regularly shy away from driving to the basket, but that most attempts would wind up futile, as Rose would be finding his way physically, as well as attempting to mesh with new teammates in new roles. Fortunately, Rose has proven me wrong while giving us the customary “WOW!” moment like this, even against the league’s best. Among players who have appeared in 30+ games, played 25+ minutes per contest, and driven 100+ times, Rose’s field goal percentage on drives (55.8%) is fourth-best in the league, behind only Golden State’s Stephen Curry, Phoenix’s Goran Dragic, and Washington’s John Wall. He ranks 12th in points per drive (6) in addition to doing it much more efficiently than the three mentioned above, and his drives are also very beneficial to his teammates, as his team points per game on drives-to-drives per game ratio is a stellar (1.29:1), among the tops in the NBA.
Shot Limit?
Unfortunately, Rose has taken a liking to long-distance shooting, and his average distance on field goal attempts this season (14.2 FT) is a career-high. Per Basketball Reference, the Bulls’ point guard is also attempting a career-high 48.1% of his field goal attempts from 16 feet and beyond, despite shooting barely over 30% from that territory. After telling reporters before the season that he would incorporate runners and floaters into his repertoire more as a way to preserve his body, he’s actually been a little too gun-shy when shooting the ball, if that makes sense. Rose is shooting a career-high 58.2% in the range of 3 to 10 feet, and the back half of that area would be the beginning or middle of what I’d call “floater range.” He’s certainly capable of getting what he wants when in the lane; it’s just a matter of Rose understanding that when he drives, it means better for his production, and that of the team’s.
Much to my chagrin, Rose has long been having an affair with the three-point shot, as that percentage of his overall shot attempts has risen every year since his second year in the league to his current 33.6% mark. It’s one thing to simply not be a good jump shooter, but it’s something entirely different to not have good form.
Rose certainly possess the athleticism and frame to be a good jump shooter, especially from deep, but his form is inconsistent, at best. Part of this is due to Rose not often enough “stepping” or “walking” into a shot or sometimes finding himself in weird positions before he gathers to jump and release. When he’s able to step into a shot, it provides him with the balance necessary to have better form on his way up. In addition, Rose is going to have to start looking to take more jump shots in rhythm and off the dribble, because he’s just not getting done in the catch-and-shoot department. Tracking Rose with SportVU, he shoots a paltry 31.9% on catch-and-shoot attempts to go with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 45.7%. Although Rose does take his fair share of long-distance shots off the dribble and in transition, he still usually doesn’t have his legs properly under him, which can also make for odd caroms and bounces off the rim.
A “fix”
It’s easy to assume that as Rose becomes more integrated into this Bulls team, he will play with a greater level of comfort and ease, hopefully allowing him to do what he does best: Beat defenders off the dribble and attack the rim, creating for himself and/or others. However, with the Bulls’ offense placing a strong emphasis on spacing in the halfcourt, it will be important for all ballhandlers to be able to knock down jump shots with some regularity. Lucky for Rose, he is playing with the best offensive cast of his professional career, and that’s without veteran small forward Mike Dunleavy and rookie small forward Doug McDermott, who have both been shelved because of injury, leaving a void at the position. Ultimately, it would be wise for Rose to use his weapons/teammates early and then capitalize on the defense realizing they have to guard everyone on the floor, and not just #1.
Full-Court Run 
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